Global coffee prices have recently risen to their highest in nearly 50 years, according to Reuters. Arabica beans (that make Arabica coffee) are the primary beans used in the high-quality coffee found at most restaurants and coffee shops. Recently, the price of Arabica beans has spiked to $3.50 per pound, which makes it an 80% year over year increase in the price of beans per pound. This has broken an almost 50-year-old record by surpassing the cost of coffee beans in 1977 (with prices adjusted for inflation).
The increase in arabica bean prices will cause an increase in commercial coffee prices, thereby affecting both cafe-goers and at-home coffee drinkers. This can come in the form of less topping-off of portions, smaller cup sizes, and increased prices at restaurants. Coffee is currently the second most traded commodity by volume, after crude oil, and its popularity is increasing. In fact, coffee consumption in China has doubled over the past decade. Major coffee makers have already increased prices of coffee earlier this year, and are questioning how much more they will be able to raise prices without a drastic dropoff in sales.
“We will continue to pull the levers available to us, whether that’s trade or obviously cost reduction, to try to make sure that we don’t take price up too much and are very careful to what the consumers can bear,” said Mark Smucker, the CEO of the J.M. Smucker Company, which is the leading seller of at-home retail coffee through well-known brands such as Folgers, Dunkin’ Donuts, and Café Bustelo.
Jackie Newman, vice president of World of Coffee Inc., a family-owned business that packages coffee beans for private labels, food services and coffee shops, had a similar proclamation to Smucker. “We’re going to try to be as fair as possible and eat as much of the cost as we can. Obviously, people still need their cup of coffee in the morning,” Newman said to NBC News. “But we also have to make sure that we’re accounting for all of our costs, not just the increase in coffee but also the increase in packaging and labor costs, as well.” She predicts that the cost of coffee could increase by 50 cents to $1 per pound in the near future.
On a high note, Nestlé, the company that makes Nespresso pods, Blue Bottle Coffee and Starbucks brew-at-home products, have stated that they are currently working on technologies that can make use of each bean more efficiently, which would lower the cost of production and the commercial price.
In 1977, the spike in coffee prices was caused by a heavy snowfall and frost that killed more than a billion coffee trees in Brazil. The reason for the price spike this year, although also related to climate effects, is the complete opposite as in 1977: significant areas of major global coffee producers Brazil’s and Vietnam’s forests have gone through extreme weather patterns (i.e. severe drought followed by heavy rains).
Coffee isn’t the first commodity to have been affected by crop failures as of late. “If we look at the recent floods in Europe, for example, that impacted the Valencia region [in Spain], a key agricultural producing region in that country, it had some pretty detrimental effects on things like oranges,” David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, told NBC News. He added that lettuce and beef prices were also affected recently by extreme droughts two years ago in California, and we’re still recovering from the effects of the downturn today.
The underlying problem of all of these increasing food prices? Climate change. A few years ago, we were talking about the future implications of climate change; now, we are starting to see and feel the repercussions of shrugging off the gravity of climate change. From more frequent crop failures that cause increasing market prices, to melting icebergs, the alarming signs of climate change are all there.
We need to take this as a warning. An increase in the price of coffee and other crop-based commodities seems to be negligible in the grand scheme of world trade, but it is yet another sign of the negative impact of climate change. And if we don’t act to halt or reverse the devastating effects of climate change now, expect your morning cup of joe to cost more and more every year.