Lots of things come with fall: the scents, the weather, the colors, but most importantly, the iconic pumpkin spice lattes! We all know how the flavor has been a fan favorite, appearing in everything from drinks to cookies, and more. However, its growing popularity raises the important question: does this flavor affect the sales of a coffee shop? And if it does, is it for the better or for the worse?
Pumpkin spice isn’t just a seasonal treat; it’s a cultural phenomenon. Every year, coffee shops roll out their pumpkin-flavored menus, and customers line up to get their hands on the first sip of the season. No matter what’s trending during the fall, pumpkin spice is always in. For many, it’s more than simply a drink – it’s a signal that autumn has officially arrived, with “roughly 20 million pumpkin spice lattes crossing the coffee counter each year,” according to The Takeout.
From a business perspective, this excitement often translates into a surge in sales. There is a sense of excitement that surrounds limited-time flavors. They aren’t there forever, which poses an incentive to buy them while you can. If you are lucky and the flavor is really successful, you might even see your favorite menu item return the next year. In particular, seasonal flavors can help smaller coffee shops compete with larger chains by allowing them to tap into the same nostalgic appeal. A study by Technomic supports this, revealing that “59 percent of consumers reported that they were more likely to order a drink if it had been labeled as ‘seasonal.’”
The 2025 Starbucks fall menu launch demonstrates this effect in practice. In a recent press release, Brian Niccol, their chief executive officer, announced that following the launch on August 26, the company celebrated “a record-breaking sales week across [their] U.S. company-operated stores.” This outcome was not surprising, especially considering the fact that roughly 10% of Starbucks’ annual sales come from seasonal drinks – a shocking statistic revealed by a study from Ramp.
The impact doesn’t stop at beverages. Coffee shops often pair pumpkin spice drinks with seasonal bakery items like pumpkin loaves, muffins, or cookies, encouraging customers to add food to their order, which in turn further boosts profit. In fact, NPD Group found that pumpkin spice lattes “have a positive impact on visit frequency and check averages as consumers tend to purchase food along with the beverage.” Beyond increasing revenue, these seasonal pairings help create a richer autumn experience. The warm spices in the drinks complement the flavors in baked goods, making them natural companions on the menu. Many shops also use themed packaging, cozy displays, and limited-time promotions to reinforce the seasonal mood, turning a simple coffee run into a festive ritual. This combination of flavors, atmosphere, and exclusivity keep customers coming back throughout the season, eager to enjoy the full fall experience.
Ultimately, these lattes aren’t just an autumn treat – they’re a savvy business strategy, and a cultural touchstone. They demonstrate how a simple flavor can turn seasonal excitement directly into higher revenue, proving that a dash of cinnamon and nutmeg is all that it takes to spice things up for the fall season.
