A new study released by Nature Communications claims that the world population count may have been severely underestimated through miscounting in rural areas, challenging the widely accepted figure of approximately eight billion people on Earth. Led by Josias Láng-Ritter, a group of researchers at Aalto University in Finland found that the global census could have excluded around 53% to 84% of the population in rural settings, according to NDTV World.
The Day of Eighth Billion was announced by the United Nations on November 15, 2022, to designate the date the global population reached eight billion. This statistic was measured using a grid-based method, in which the globe is divided into a grid and the population of each square is estimated with census data. However, the census data used for these estimations are mainly from urban settings, resulting in a lack of representation from rural settings. This issue stems from the lack of resources for precise data collection in certain countries and the rough environments of rural areas that make travel difficult.
The new research aimed to address this miscalculation using around 300 dam construction work projects from 1975 to 2010 that focused on people displacement. When dams are being built, people are removed from the nearby areas and the amount of people relocated is counted for dam companies to pay compensation. As a result, the numbers are more accurate and verifiable than census collections. Data from the dam projects were combined with images from satellites to provide better estimates of the population than traditional census methods.
“For the first time, our study provides evidence that a significant proportion of the rural population may be missing from global population datasets,” Láng-Ritter said according to Science Alert.
Accurate population estimates play a vital role in guiding decisions about healthcare services, education, infrastructure, and risk reduction methods in natural disasters. Due to the current census system undercounting a large portion of the rural population, individuals in those regions face gaps in public services. While a large-scale change in the documented population would result in several consequences as governments attempt to provide the same services to more people, it would allow for more citizens to receive equal treatment.
“These invisible communities are left out of development planning, as decision-makers often rely on population statistics to prioritize investments,” the Indian Defence Review described. “In effect, millions of people may not exist on paper—meaning they’re not considered when governments plan for the future.”
However, many scientists are skeptical of the study’s conclusions. For example, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology professor Stuart Gietel-Basten stated that much of the data used in the study came from parts of Asia, which may not apply to the entire globe. He stated on NewScientist that in the context of other European nations, the data might not be applicable and that it is highly unlikely that the true population is greater in the billions. Martin Kolk at Stockholm University in Sweden expresses similar views, remaining unconvinced of the study’s credibility.
In response to Gietel-Basten’s point, Láng-Ritter acknowledged the possibility of inconsistency but stated that the countries they exclaimed were all very different, so they were confident their concussions could be expanded across the entire globe. While more research has yet to be done to confirm or rebuke the new study’s claims, it nevertheless opens the door to further developments in public services.
