January of this year saw the deadliest US aviation accident since the 2009 passenger flight crash, which is often hailed as the deadliest crash in recent US history. The mid-air collision of an army Black Hawk helicopter and a civilian airliner stood out even among the string of aviation disasters that have occurred since December. Though significant, with multiple deaths, and the involvement of both a civilian airliner and a military aircraft, the January 29 collision is still somewhat shrouded in mystery. While MIT Professor Arnold Barrett stated that “the chance of dying during an air journey keeps dropping by about 7 percent annually, and continues to go down by a factor of two every decade” in a 2024 study, worrying headlines continue to highlight a seemingly ever-worsening chain of fatal airborne disasters. So why does discussing just one of these incidents matter when considering 2025’s “surge” in plane accidents? 

Unfortunately, the collision between American Airlines Flight 5342 and an Army Black Hawk helicopter killed all 64 aboard the civilian airliner, and the Black Hawk’s three occupants (all army-affiliated). To put the incident into perspective, NPR named it “the most significant disaster to occur in U.S. airspace in at least 15 years.” Of all the recent aviation disasters, January 29’s  might be the best example of why such accidents occur, and why we’ve witnessed what seems to be a “spike.”

Despite clear skies and frequent communication between the American Airlines flight and air traffic control officials, the collision still occurred. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy reported to NBC News that “everything was standard in the lead-up to the crash,” speaking on the routine descent Flight 5324 had made. Veteran Pilot John Halverson described the pilots’ procedure as “by-the-book,” yet adding that at the time of the collision, the pilots would’ve been more focused on landing. In addition, NBC-affiliated aviation experts stated that at the airliner’s altitude, Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance Systems (TCAS) should’ve worked perfectly fine, and been able to warn of a possible collision. It’s important to note that military helicopters don’t usually have similar collision-warning systems. 

Even weeks after the collision, its root cause is still unknown. Representatives from the National Transportation Safety Board,which NPR stated as “an independent federal agency leading an investigation into the collision,” proposed that “the Black Hawk may have been flying higher than it should have.” Another working theory is that the Black Hawk’s crew, three army personnel on a training exercise, were not equipped with standard night-vision equipment. Other experts point to the malfunctioning of detection and warning systems aboard both aircrafts. However, like most of the credible sources commenting on the incident, Professor Philip Grensun at MIT believes that it was human error which caused the incident. He told The Independent that miscommunication between air traffic controllers and the Black Hawk, paired with factors such as visibility, visual distractions, and dense air traffic could’ve led up to the eventual collision. 

Having taken off in Wichita, Kansas, Flight 5324 was supposed to land at Reagan National Airport. Likewise, the Black Hawk had taken off from and was returning to Fort Belvoir in Virginia. Both fell into the Potomac River following their collision, and the next morning,  rescue crews, assisted by two Navy barges, removed debris from the river.  

In order to further investigate possible causes of the collision, the NTSB recovered Flight 5324’s flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder called black boxes. It hopes its contents can shed some light on the situation. Brice Banning, the chief NTSB investigator, told Sky News that “the airplane began to increase its pitch… sounds of impact were audible about one second later, followed by the end of the recording,” adding that the pilots “had a verbal reaction” just before collision, suggesting surprise. CNN writes that according to data from ground-based radar, the army helicopter was most probably flying too high. 

Although there seems to be a fatal plane crash every other day, it’s important to realize that aviation disasters are rare compared to their rates a few decades ago.  A small spike in such incidents, most likely resulting due to human error, is concerning, especially due to the scope of fatalities, but probably doesn’t signify a significant change in annual aviation disaster rates. Flight 5324’s collision with the UH-60 Black Hawk shows us the dangers of human error, especially when coupled with pre-existing hurdles.