As winter approaches, students start digging their sweaters out of their closets, but forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are urging more than just warm layers. According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the upcoming 2025-2026 winter season could bring more unpredictable weather than usual. Early forecasts suggest that shifting climate patterns, including a weak La Niña, could affect temperatures, snowfall, and storm activity across the United States.
The National Weather System describes la Niña as a climate pattern caused by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. This shift in the ocean disrupts atmospheric circulation, which pushes cold air toward northern states and keeps southern regions warmer and drier. NOAA reports that this pattern has a stronger chance of continuing into the winter months. According to The Watchers, the CPC also estimates a 71% chance of La Niña between October and December 2025, with a likelihood falling to 54% by December through February. Meanwhile, other agencies like the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggest a gradual return to ENSO-neutral conditions by early 2026.
Why does La Niña matter for winter here? The Watchers reported that historically, weak La Niñas tend to produce above-average conditions across much of the northern U.S., including the Midwest, and New England. La Nina phases are also associated with increased Atlantic hurricane activity and enhanced rainfall over Northern Australia, Indonesia, and southern Asia. However, they don’t always create textbook conditions.
On top of that, forecasters at OpenSnow are keeping a close eye on the polar vortex—a large mass of frigid air high in the atmosphere. According to OpenSnow, if the vortex weakens or becomes unstable, it may allow Arctic air to spill southward into Southern Canada and the Lower 48 of the U.S., triggering intense, short-lived cold snaps even in regions that expect mild temperatures.
At school, students are already reacting to what might come. Cristina Goiria (’27) said, “I just hope it snows enough that we actually get a day off school. Last winter barely had any snow.”
“I don’t really care if it’s cold, as long as there’s snow,” Harianna Fontanilla (’26) said. “Snow makes everything more fun–except when it makes walking to school much more unbearable.”
For others, unpredictability is the biggest thing: “Honestly, I check the weather every morning anyways,” Emily Rosen (’27) said.
“I feel like that’s the only way to know if I should wear a hoodie or a puffer jacket,” freshman K’lyn De Jesus (’29) admitted, “Last year I left home in a sweatshirt and then froze on my way home after school. If this winter is supposed to be even more up and down, I guess we all need to be prepared.”
Beyond snow, broader climate patterns could also impact water and drought conditions. OpenSnow warns that areas in the southern U.S. may face drier temperatures, while regions like the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies could get more precipitation and possibly more snow. Certain analog-year analyses suggest that early and late season snowfall may be heavier, while mid-winter could be less extreme.
Still, OpenSnow experts emphasize that seasonal forecasts should always be taken with “a grain of salt” and are not set in stone. Even when a La Niña signal is present, its impacts can be “busts” in some regions, meaning the usual patterns may not fully materialize. In other words, just because models lean one way doesn’t mean everything will follow the “classic” La Niña script.
What does this mean for students? First: stay flexible. Layered clothing will be more useful than ever. Second: watch local forecasts closely for cold snaps or winter storms that could come with little warning. Third: think about plans for safety during winter weather since icy sidewalks or delayed buses could become more frequent.
Pollly Reeves (’26) summed things up: “Winter here is always a mess. I just want to know what I’m walking into each morning.”
Based on NOAA’s current outlook, that mess could include everything from heavy snow to sudden cold blasts and wetter or drier stretches, depending on where you live. One thing seems clear: Winter 2026 could be one to remember, for better or for worse. Like Mariah Carey says, “It’s time…”
